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January 13th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:  Bondi on the Brink? Attorney General Pam Bondi has rocketed to most likely Trump cabinet member to leave the administration first. This follows a WSJ report that Trump is annoyed by "what he sees as Bondi's failure to quickly and effectively prosecute the investigators who had pursued him for years, including former FBI Director James Comey and New York Democratic Attorney General Letitia James." |
 Iran Strikes Imminent? Odds have shifted to favor a more likely near-term strike against Iran by the United States and/or Israel, as Trump says the military is looking at "very strong options." |
Earnings Season JP Morgan surprised the market this morning by missing GAAP earnings. But this has not hurt traders' optimism about the other companies reporting this week. Full Polymarket corporate earnings calendar after the jump. |
| Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)? View market → | 5%-20% |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? View market → | 5%-7% |
| Iran Strike on Israel by January 15? View market → | 4%-20% |
| Uganda Presidential Election | 1d |
| Bank of Korea decision in January? | 1d |
| Number of TSA Passengers January 16? | 2d |
| Trump drops Powell investigation by February 28? | 11h ago |
| Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31? | 11h ago |
| How many monthly active users will Spotify report 2025 Q4? | 12h ago |
| Hot Polymarkets | 24H Volume |
| Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 | $3.98M |
| Fed decision in January? | $28.76M |
| Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? | $4.29M |
| Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) | 1d |
| VfB Stuttgart vs. Eintracht Frankfurt | 6h |
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