Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning:
Open & Shut
Trump signed a bill yesterday ending the partial government shutdown. But the bill only funds the Department of Homeland Security through February 13. Traders are pricing in higher odds for another shutdown this month.
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Gatorade Forecast
Sunday night's Big Game™ is about way more than the final score. We've got every random side bet imaginable: Gatorade shower color (orange is trending), Barron Trump cameo, and dozens more.
Software Slide
The launch of Claude Code has triggered a sharp selloff in software stocks. Who is next on the chopping block as earnings season continues?
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by February 14, 2026?
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30?
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?
How many jobs added in January?
Thailand Legislative Election Winner
Prime Minister of Japan after snap election?
Next Country US Strikes
SAVE Act signed into law in 2026?
Where will the US & Iran meet?
Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
Fed decision in March?
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Seattle vs. New England
UEFA Champions League Winner
Grizzlies vs. Kings
Where will Giannis be traded?
Wild vs. Predators
"No" Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
Alexparker
"No" Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?
JAHODA
Introducing "The Polymarket"
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