Breaking: Shutdown averted?

January 29th, 2026 Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we are monitoring this morning: Top Stories Shutdown Deal? Yesterday, Chuck Schumer was posting toughly about his demands to avoid a shutdown. But this morning, the NYT reports, "the White House and the Senate are making good progress to avoid a shutdown," according to Sen. Susan Collins of Maine. This follows the release of a video showing Alex Pretti attacking Federal agents in Minneapolis. Odds for a shutdown are down 30% since then. Read more → Did Rick Rieder Peak too Early? Trump can't seem to make up his mind about his next Fed chair. BlackRock's Rick Rieder emerged as the new frontrunner last week, but his odds have fallen 15% in recent days. Since there's no news flow, we sent this to our best technical analysis guy. Read more → TrumpRX With just two days left in January, odds for Trump's prescription drug program to launch this month spiked nearly 5x overnight on reports that it will launch Friday. Check odds → ​ Wallet Watch Coming in Hot @kch123 just dropped $723,000 on Seattle to cover -4.5. He's up $6,000,000 all time and has almost $2,000,000 on Seattle to win and cover the Super Bowl spread. View Wallet → ​ Breaking News Odds Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? View market → 0% +1% Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? View market → 18% -35% Will Kanye release BULLY by January 30? View market → 1% -35% See all Breaking → ​ Ending Soon Ends In #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? 12h Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? 12h #1 song on Spotify this week? (January 30) 12h See all Ending Soon → ​ New Listed What will the U.S./Israel target in Iran by February 28? 10h ago Another GTA VI trailer released by March 31? 16h ago See all New → ​ Hot Polymarkets 24H Volume Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028 $12.31M Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 $7.01M Which companies will be acquired before 2027? $4.21M Who will Trump talk to in January? $978.3K See all Hot Polymarkets → ​ Top Sports Starts In NBA MVP 131d Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina 13d English Premier League Winner 117d Seahawks vs. Patriots 10d See all Top Sports → ​ Whale Moves "No" Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting? $1.01M Ryan888 See Wallet → "No" US strikes Iran by January 29, 2026? $77.3K kvento See Wallet → See all Whale Moves → Last Word Bond Market Polymarket traders love "bonds," low risk trades to squeeze the last few points of value before an event resolves. And Fed rate decisions, like yesterday's FOMC, are a bond lover's paradise. But how soon can you enter these trades while there is still meat on the bone? The Oracle investigates. Read more → ​ If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here. 1280 Lexington Avenue New York, NY 10028 U.S.