Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What's cooking today:
Peace in Q4
As Trump and Iran trade threats, Polymarket traders remain optimistic on a peace deal in the second half of the year.
Starmer
'Starmer Out' odds are spiking after an abysmal Labour performance in last week's local elections. He's under pressure from members of his own party, and the bond market dumping UK debt.
LeBron's swan song?
With L.A. getting swept out of the playoffs last night, traders are asking whether King James just played his last NBA game.
Kamikaze dolphins
Traders think the government is unlikely to spill the beans on the kamikaze dolphin program.
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May?
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by...?
Trump approval rating on May 15?
Who will perform at Coachella 2027?
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Eurovision Winner 2026
Will Trump visit China by...?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage
Timberwolves vs. Spurs
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
F1 Drivers' Champion
"No" Epstein suicide note released by May 8?
0x6EDe3D5Fa80c7035e1…
"No" US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
UnderperformingForAL…
"No" Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
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