Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Hovercraft time
Multiple outlets are reporting on preparations underway to send troops to Iran. U.S. forces are projected to enter the country by the end of April.
Oil up
Oil price forecasts are up across the board after Israel hit Iran's South Pars natural gas facility yesterday. Iran responded by hitting strategic oil installations in several Gulf states.
Cuts?
More aggressive Fed rate cuts seem to be off the table this year. Oil shocks are inflationary, which makes it harder to cut rates regardless of who is at the Fed.
Duke in retreat
Duke was a heavy favorite to win the NCAA tourney on Selection Sunday, but life comes at you fast. Following Blue Devil injury news, fellow 1-seeds Michigan and Arizona are now basically tied in the odds.
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in SpaceX's initial public offering?
Hezbollah military action against Israel by March 20?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 10, 2026?
Trump approval rating on March 20?
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Netanyahu out by...?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Eurovision Winner 2026
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
South Florida Bulls vs. Louisville Cardinals
English Premier League Winner
"No" New "Stranger Things" episode released by March 31?
bobe2
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