Iranian state media have confirmed the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in an Israeli strike on the first day of the war.
How Long Will the War Last?
Military sources told Politico that the campaign will be measured in "days not hours." But on Polymarket, the most likely outcome is a ceasefire beginning in the second half of March.
Will the Regime Survive?
Odds are split nearly evenly on whether Iran's Islamic Republic system of government will last. The most likely scenario is a slow regime collapse that takes months.
Next Supreme Leader?
Iran has formed an interim council made up of President Masoud Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Mohseni‑Ejei, and Alireza Arafi, a senior cleric. Arafi's religious status makes him most likely to be named as the next Supreme Leader, should the regime survive.
Strait of Hormuz Open?
There are conflicting reports as to whether the strategic oil passageway is open or shut. Vessel trackers are showing some ships transiting through with their location tracking turned off. A full closure becomes more likely if the conflict drags on.
If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here.
Ni komentarjev:
Objavite komentar