Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Hormuz: back to business?
Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open,” but the U.S. naval blockade stays until the Iran deal is “100% complete." Markets were already pricing a return to normal traffic by late April, and the post adds more momentum. Now it’s just a question of timing on the deal.
Back from the brink
After months of losses, the S&P 500 rallied to an all-time high on Wednesday for the first time since late January. The recovery has been as dramatic as the selloff that preceded it, and traders are now looking ahead, predicting a 62% chance that the index hits 7,300 by the end of June. The bulls are back.
Last call
It's the last chance to make the NBA playoffs tonight -- the Hornets are 60% favorites over the Magic in the East, and the Suns are 59% favorites to beat the Warriors in the West.
Bieberchella breaks records
Justin Bieber's Coachella set broke records last weekend and sent the internet into meltdown. With his second weekend performance coming up, Polymarket traders are looking ahead to who he brings out on stage.
How low will it go?
Oil is in freefall, and this trader is up nearly $200k in a day trading how low crude will go.
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by April 30, 2026?
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again this month?
Trump approval rating on April 17?
Santa Cruz Governor Election Winner (Bolivia)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by...?
Fed decision in April?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026 NBA Champion
F1 Drivers' Champion
If you have any feedback on Polymarket, drop us a line at support@polymarket.com. If you don't wish to receive these emails you can unsubscribe here.