Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Punishing NATO
Trump is reportedly considering options to punish NATO countries for not helping with the Iran operation. Odds of the U.S. leaving NATO this year have tripled since the start of the war.
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A GPT is born
OpenAI released GPT 5.5, codenamed 'Spud', yesterday. According to OpenAI, the model outperforms Gemini 3.1 Pro and Claude Opus 4.5 across a number of benchmarks - but can it unseat Anthropic as top model in blind user testing?
New losing streak just dropped
Apparently the NL East is all about ridiculously long losing streaks. First, the Mets lost 12 in a row; now the Phillies are sitting on 9 straight losses with a 56% chance of hitting double-digits this evening.
Philadelphia hopium
This Philly superfan wallet with nearly $200k in Poly PnL is counting on the Phillies to break their streak tonight and go on to take the Pennant.
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by April 30, 2026?
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Apr 20-26)
"Michael" Rotten Tomatoes score?
Trump re-sues WSJ by April 27?
Clavicular unbanned from Youtube by April 30?
Sejong Mayoral Election Winner
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by...?
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by...?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
2026 NBA Champion
Dota 2: South America Rejects vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers
NFL Champion 2027
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