Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Ceasefire Slipping
Odds for a U.S.- Iran ceasefire are dropping across all timeframes. Over the weekend, Israel hit massive oil storage tanks near Tehran, and Iran and the Gulf states traded attacks on desalination plants.
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$120
Crude oil futures are soaring. Polymarket traders project WTI oil will exceed $120 / barrel by the end of March. $150 oil by June is a coin toss.
Schrödinger's Kristi Noem
Trump fired Kristi Noem as DHS secretary last week. But she's not out of the administration entirely... She's moving to a new gig as Special Envoy for the "Shield of the Americas," a Western Hemisphere anti-cartel program. Polymarket traders think she's on thin ice, even in the new role.
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?
Colombia Chamber of Representatives Election Winner
"Scream 7" Second Weekend Box Office
McDonald's CEO out by June 30?
#1 song on US Spotify this week? (March 13)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?
Fed decision in March?
Paris Mayoral Election
Next Supreme Leader of Iran?
English Premier League Winner
La Liga Winner
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs
F1 Drivers' Champion
The Doomberg Interview
Doomberg, a pseudonymous team of former commodity execs writes one of the most popular Substacks on energy and geopolitics. We talk energy implications of Iran's missile war and where the next domino may drop.
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