Welcome back to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. What we're watching today:
Tehran Twitter Strategy
Iran's new Supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is getting more active on X, but his impressions are weak due to only having sub 100k followers. Mojtaba's tweets are now being RT'd from his late father's 2.2m follower account. Polymarket traders think the retweets will continue until engagement improves.
Opera Gate
A viral clip where former Best Actor frontrunner Timothée Chalamet seemed to dismiss ballet and opera has tanked his Oscar odds even further. We'll know for sure on Sunday night.
Quick Links
Who will cut down the nets?
The NCAA tournament bracket won't be set until Sunday, but here are the early favorites to win the men's title -- with Duke and Michigan leading the way over defending-champ Florida.
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?
Will Juliana Stratton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Illinois?
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?
Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner
Oscars 2026: Best Picture Winner
Oscars 2026: Best Actress Winner
# of seats won by Social Democrats in Denmark Parliamentary Election?
Which parties will be part of the next Government of Denmark?
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit__ by end of March?
F1 Drivers' Champion
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs
Dota 2: Heroic vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs
NBA Western Conference Champion
Pro Football: 2027 NFC Champion
"No" Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
thirtyfiveled
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