Sunday, March 15, 2026
The NCAA tournament brackets just dropped. We're breaking down all of the markets around the favorites, Cinderellas and upsets to follow over the next few weeks.
Can anyone stop Duke?
Sorry, Duke-haters: the Blue Devils are favorites again to win the NCAA tournament. (Followed by Michigan, Arizona and defending champ Florida.) Duke hasn't won the title since 2015, but this is one of the best teams they've had in program history.
Pick your first-round upsets
Seeds don't always tell the story. Statistical power ratings say Iowa, Utah State, Saint Louis and Texas A&M are among the lower-seeded teams that have the highest odds to win their games in the Round of 64.
Upset alert
How quickly will we lose a top-seeded team? There's only a 4% chance that a #16 seed upsets a #1, but the odds are better (28%) that a top seed will get knocked out before the Round of 16.
Meet Cinderella?
Lower-seeded teams with a good shot at a deep tournament run are a bit hard to come by this year. But the odds of a double-digit seed to make the Elite 8 were trending up Sunday night. And Midwest #11 SMU might be the team to do it — if they survive the First Four.
Always back the favorites
LiquidatedDegen's profile says they "specialize in underdog and improbable outcomes", but they're by far the single biggest "Yes" holder for a Duke national championship.
Thanks for reading this special edition of Polygraph! Check out more NCAA basketball odds at Polymarket all month.
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