Welcome to your daily mind meld with the Polymarket order book. The situations we're monitoring today:
War not over
Oil is up and stocks are down after Trump's speech last night didn't signal a wind down of the war. Instead, there are new reports that the president is considering a plan to seize Iran's nuclear materials in a daring commando raid. Can he pull it off?
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SpaceX
SpaceX has filed for an IPO, but most of the details remain secret. Polymarket traders see the month of June as the most likely launch window.
Back on top
Cristopher Sanchez was favorite to win Cy Young over reigning winner Paul Skenes when the latter had his worst-ever start on Opening Day. But Skenes was closer to his usual self on Wednesday, so traders restored him to No. 1 in the odds...for now.
Swiss Don't Miss
One of Polymarket's top geopol traders, SwissMiss, is not optimistic about Trump's uranium operation or a nuclear deal.
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
March Unemployment Rate
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz on April 3?
Highest grossing movie this weekend (April 3)
Will MrBeast hit ___ Billion views by April 30?
What will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
US forces enter Iran by..?
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
LA LIGA Winner
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
Lakers vs. Thunder
2026 NCAA Tournament Winner
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